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Araceli Martínez Holguín

260710_Profilfoto_Aracely-Martinez

UNAM

Economics

Project: "Temporalities of Hunger and Climate: Development Banks and Green Industrial Policy as Architectures of Anticipation"

Education

Since 01/2025

PhD Student in Economics at the Graduate Division of the School of Economics (DEPFE) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

08/2021 – 07/2023

Master in Economics at the Graduate Division of the School of Economics (DEPFE) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

08/2013 – 07/2018

Bachelor in Economics at the Graduate Division of the School of Economics (DEPFE) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

Work experience

Since 02/2026

Lecturer in Programming in R for Economists at the Undergraduate Division of the School of Economics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

Since 08/2022

Teaching Assistant in Macroeconomics at the Undergraduate Division of the School of Economics (DEPFE) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)

Project: "Temporalities of Hunger and Climate: Development Banks and Green Industrial Policy as Architectures of Anticipation"


Supervisor: Dr. Santiago Capraro Rodríguez


This research conceptualizes the climate crisis in Mexico as a systemic disruption of development temporalities, in which the interaction between extreme weather events, food inflation, and monetary policy undermines collective aspirations for long-term development. The study is organized into two complementary components: an empirical analysis of climate-induced shocks and a proposal for an institutional architecture of response.

The first component employs a Difference-in-Differences methodology to examine the effects of major drought episodes in 2011, 2012, 2023, and 2024 on the Mexican white maize market. The results show that drought-induced supply shocks reduce agricultural yields, generate sharp increases in maize prices, and create inflationary spillovers that threaten national food security. These dynamics give rise to a “temporality of hunger”: condition in which households and policymakers become trapped in survival-oriented decision-making, eroding their capacity for long-term planning. This temporality emerges from the broader “temporality of climate”, whereby increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events reflect the cumulative consequences of delayed action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change.

Building on these findings, the second component proposes an “architecture of anticipation” aimed at restoring long-term development horizons through strategic institutional coordination. Specifically, it advocates greening the Bank of Mexico's Open Market Operations (OMAs) by accepting Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) bonds issued by development banks as eligible collateral. By embedding a liquidity premium into these securities, the proposal increases their attractiveness to financial markets, encourages their issuance, and lowers financing costs for Green Industrial Policy. By aligning central bank liquidity provision with the long-term investment mandate of development banks, this framework seeks to reduce the economy's exposure to climate-induced volatility while strengthening the institutional capacity to reconcile macroeconomic stability with a just and sustainable development trajectory.

Working Papers
Martínez Holguín, A. (forthcoming). Eventos climáticos extremos y precios de los alimentos: el impacto de las sequías sobre el maíz mexicano.* Documento de trabajo.

Book Chapters
Capraro Rodríguez, S. y Martínez Holguín, A. (forthcoming). Ecologización de las Operaciones de Mercado Abierto del Banco de México. En “La arquitectura financiera de la Agenda 2030 en México”. IIEc-UNAM.
Capraro Rodríguez, S. y Martínez Holguín, A. (forthcoming). Ecologización de las Operaciones de Mercado Abierto del Banco de México: una propuesta para reactivar la banca de desarrollo y financiar la transición verde. Springer

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